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IT Giants Lag in Exports Race: What’s Behind the Shift?

India’s software and IT exports are racing ahead overall, but the country’s top listed IT giants are losing ground in the export race. New data show a widening gulf between headline software export growth and the performance of established publicly listed firms, raising important questions for investors, policymakers, and the tech industry at large.

The Numbers: The Export Race

  • India’s software exports grew 12.7% in FY25, reaching $180.6 billion, according to RBI data.

  • Listed IT companies (the major players on the stock market) reported only 3.8% growth in foreign exchange revenues, totaling $69.6 billion, their lowest market share in 14 years.

  • The share of listed IT firms in total software exports has shrunk from 55% in FY19 to 38.5% in FY25, against a backdrop of accelerating growth from unlisted firms and Global Capability Centres (GCCs) of multinational corporations.

What’s Fueling the Divergence?

Rise of Unlisted Players & GCCs

  • Unlisted Indian IT firms and GCCs are growing much faster, with their forex revenues rising at a CAGR of 15.9% (FY21–FY24). These companies, often smaller or more specialized, have captured contracts that would previously go to titans like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro.

  • GCCs (captive service centers run by global corporates in India) now serve as export powerhouses, competing directly with India’s flagship IT firms for global delivery mandates.

Methodological and Market Factors

  • Different reporting standards: RBI uses balance of payments (cash flow), while companies report on an accrual basis, creating statistical divergence.

  • Shift to freelancers and boutique specialists: Many global clients now contract smaller, agile teams outside traditional IT behemoths.

  • Changing market needs: Unlisted firms and GCCs are more nimble in cloud, AI, SaaS, and digital transformation, matching Western clients’ appetite for cutting-edge tech and flexible pricing.

Global Headwinds

  • Tariffs and protectionism: US tariffs, trade frictions, and new Trump-era regulations have made clients cautious, slowing discretionary IT spending and hurting marquee deal flows for industry leaders.

  • Project delays & “leakage”: Multi-year contracts are common, but economic uncertainty means actual project implementation is lagging behind bookings for many top IT firms.

Implications for the Industry

  • For the Giants: TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL, and Tech Mahindra face lower growth, declining share, and potential margin compression as competition intensifies and big clients squeeze costs.

  • For Startups & New Entrants: Opportunities abound for smaller, niche firms and startups geared toward new tech or verticals less exposed to protectionist risk.

  • For India’s IT Brand: The total export story remains robust, but the face of “Brand India IT” is changing, more distributed, multi-layered, and less reliant on a handful of big names.

Summary:
India’s IT leaders are lagging in the exports race, losing share to fast-growing unlisted firms and global capability centers. While the country’s software exports as a whole remain strong, the traditional titans must adapt fast by innovating, embracing new markets, or risk being outpaced in the digital age.

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