The Observation Engine

Contrary to widespread fear and numerous headlines, a new study from Yale University’s Budget Lab finds that since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI technology has not yet disrupted job numbers or workforce composition in the United States . Key Findings: Stability, Not Disruption No Major Changes in Job Exposure: The study analyzed workforce data over 33 months, grouping workers by their exposure to AI (high, medium, low). If AI were eliminating jobs, the share of high-exposure workers would have gone down, but the data show those shares have barely changed. Labor Force Composition Unchanged: Yale researchers compared recent trends to historical shifts during the computer boom of the 1980s and the internet tech surge of the late 1990s. Unlike those earlier tech revolutions, AI’s impact on America’s labor force so far appears minimal. Young Worker Analysis: Tracking the spread of jobs among recent college graduates (ages 20–24) and comparing them to older cohorts...

  The job market in 2025 is all about what you can do, not just what paper you have. More companies now want people who can show real skills, like problem-solving, teamwork, or coding, instead of only looking for a college degree. Why Are Skills Becoming More Important? Technology Changes Fast: Jobs and tools are changing so quickly that schools can’t always keep up. Companies need people who can learn new things on the job and use the latest tech right away. Proof Over Paper: A degree shows you went to college, but skills prove you can actually do the work. Employers want to see what you can make, build, or manage, not just what you studied. Top Companies Lead the Way: Big names like Google, Apple, and IBM now hire for many roles without asking for degrees. They believe hands-on skills and real-world projects mean more than grades. Soft Skills Matter Too: Good communication, quick thinking, and working well with others are all just as important as technical know-h...