The Observation Engine

Today, President Trump signed a sweeping executive order imposing a $100,000 annual fee for each new H-1B visa application. This move could significantly alter the landscape of skilled immigration, the Indian IT sector, and global talent flow. Here's an in-depth look at the order, its context, and its far-reaching consequences. What Does the Executive Order Say? Effective September 21, 2025 , U.S. employers must pay $100,000 for every H-1B visa petition. The rule covers new entries and will last for at least 12 months unless extended. H-1B petitions not accompanied by this fee will be denied, locking out thousands of foreign workers unless companies are willing (and able) to pay the surcharge. U.S. agencies are ordered to close loopholes, such as arrivals on business (B-1/B-2) visas with plans to transition to H-1B jobs, making side-stepping the rule nearly impossible. Impact on the Indian IT Industry Short-Term Pain Immediate Cost Spike: Indian IT giants (TCS, In...

  The Indian rupee has slipped to a new record low of 88.33 against the US dollar as of September 2025, reflecting a mix of global and domestic pressures on the economy. What’s Driving the Fall? US Tariff Hike: The US recently increased tariffs on Indian goods by 25%, totaling almost 50% duties on several products. This has worsened India’s export competitiveness, especially in industries like textiles and engineering goods, and spooked foreign investors. Foreign Investment Outflows: In the last three trading days alone, foreign investors withdrew about $2.4 billion from Indian equity markets amid uncertainty, further straining demand for the rupee. Higher Import Costs: A weaker rupee makes crude oil, gold, electronics, and other major imports costlier, which can lead to higher inflation and put more pressure on India’s trade deficit. Market Speculation & Hedging: Importers and traders are holding more dollars to hedge against further falls, pushing the rupee...

On July 31, 2025, US President Donald Trump ignited controversy by labelling India’s economy “dead” and simultaneously announcing a sweeping 25% tariff on all Indian exports to the United States, accompanied by an unspecified penalty for India’s ongoing trade with Russia. In an era dominated by complex geopolitical alliances and economic competition, India’s sharp rebuttal and its stunning economic growth have taken centre stage in global headlines . India’s Remarkable Growth Story Despite Trump’s remarks, major economic institutions unanimously recognize India as the fastest-growing major world economy in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s growth forecast upwards to 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, citing robust fundamentals and optimism about its trajectory . The Reserve Bank of India projects similar figures, reinforced by strong domestic demand, rising private investment, and high public spending, factors that have helped India surge past the so-called “...

It was certainly news when SnP downgraded the Rating of the US from AAA to AA+. Something symbolic like the USA losing its A. What is to be observed next is to see the effect of it on the other economies, especially the growing economies. India, among them, is already showing its reaction (-vely) since Friday. Sensex has plunged for 2 consecutive days. There is a selling pressure from the Institutional Investors or the FIIs, which is creating panic. But it's better to hold on to the cliff and let the wind of uncertainty pass. In simpler terms, I am going to HOLD ON to my portfolio and will not give in to the selling pressure. I would advise others to do the same. What I feel personally is that these are just the bubble effect, which is going to subsidize very soon. The Indian economy is strong enough and self-reliant to absorb the shock that is happening around the globe at the moment.