The Observation Engine

India’s software and IT exports are racing ahead overall, but the country’s top listed IT giants are losing ground in the export race. New data show a widening gulf between headline software export growth and the performance of established publicly listed firms, raising important questions for investors, policymakers, and the tech industry at large. The Numbers: The Export Race India’s software exports grew 12.7% in FY25 , reaching $180.6 billion, according to RBI data. Listed IT companies (the major players on the stock market) reported only 3.8% growth in foreign exchange revenues , totaling $69.6 billion, their lowest market share in 14 years. The share of listed IT firms in total software exports has shrunk from 55% in FY19 to 38.5% in FY25 , against a backdrop of accelerating growth from unlisted firms and Global Capability Centres (GCCs) of multinational corporations. What’s Fueling the Divergence? Rise of Unlisted Players & GCCs Unlisted Indian IT firms an...

Today, President Trump signed a sweeping executive order imposing a $100,000 annual fee for each new H-1B visa application. This move could significantly alter the landscape of skilled immigration, the Indian IT sector, and global talent flow. Here's an in-depth look at the order, its context, and its far-reaching consequences. What Does the Executive Order Say? Effective September 21, 2025 , U.S. employers must pay $100,000 for every H-1B visa petition. The rule covers new entries and will last for at least 12 months unless extended. H-1B petitions not accompanied by this fee will be denied, locking out thousands of foreign workers unless companies are willing (and able) to pay the surcharge. U.S. agencies are ordered to close loopholes, such as arrivals on business (B-1/B-2) visas with plans to transition to H-1B jobs, making side-stepping the rule nearly impossible. Impact on the Indian IT Industry Short-Term Pain Immediate Cost Spike: Indian IT giants (TCS, In...