The Observation Engine

India’s smartphone exports hit new highs in August 2025, surging 39% year-on-year to $1.53 billion , with shipments to the United States (its largest market) nearly tripling compared to last year. This boom marks India as the world’s third-largest mobile exporter , reaffirming the success of government policies and the growing appeal of “Made in India” electronics. Key Export Highlights Overall Exports: August 2025 exports rose from $1.09 billion (August 2024) to $1.53 billion. US Market: Shipments to the US rose from $388 million to $965 million. a 148% year-on-year jump . For April–August FY26, exports to the US reached $8.43 billion, comprising nearly 80% of FY25's full-year total. Long-Term Growth: In 2018, India exported just $0.2 billion in phones. By 2025, annual exports will have hit $24.1 billion , a 119-fold increase, putting India ahead of Vietnam in mobile phone exports. Major Drivers: Apple continues to lead, with Indian-assembled iPhone exports grow...

India’s software and IT exports are racing ahead overall, but the country’s top listed IT giants are losing ground in the export race. New data show a widening gulf between headline software export growth and the performance of established publicly listed firms, raising important questions for investors, policymakers, and the tech industry at large. The Numbers: The Export Race India’s software exports grew 12.7% in FY25 , reaching $180.6 billion, according to RBI data. Listed IT companies (the major players on the stock market) reported only 3.8% growth in foreign exchange revenues , totaling $69.6 billion, their lowest market share in 14 years. The share of listed IT firms in total software exports has shrunk from 55% in FY19 to 38.5% in FY25 , against a backdrop of accelerating growth from unlisted firms and Global Capability Centres (GCCs) of multinational corporations. What’s Fueling the Divergence? Rise of Unlisted Players & GCCs Unlisted Indian IT firms an...

AI data centres are quickly becoming one of the most important and expensive pieces of our digital future. Worldwide, around $3 trillion will be spent on AI-ready data centres between now and 2029, rivalling the value of the French economy. Why Are AI Data Centres Different? Specialised Hardware & Massive Power : AI is extremely power-hungry; one ChatGPT prompt uses 10x the electricity of a Google search. These centres rely on cabinets full of GPUs (like Nvidia chips), each costing around $4 million. AI data centres demand “hyperscale” or even “gigawatt” levels of electricity, enough to power entire cities. Extreme Density and Low Latency : Unlike regular centres (storing photos, emails, apps), AI centres must pack thousands of chips close together for “parallel processing.” Even a meter of extra distance slows down learning and response times; every nanosecond counts when training massive AI models. Network and Edge Demands : Data transfer speeds and hyper-fast internal...

India’s banks and lenders have gone digital, deploying AI-powered bots and virtual agents to track down loan defaulters, automate reminders, and dramatically improve debt recovery rates. This marks a major shift in how overdue loans are managed, impacting customers, lenders, and the entire financial ecosystem. What’s Changed? The Rise of AI Avatars Banks and NBFCs now use AI-generated avatars , often dressed smartly as lawyers, to make video calls or send personalized reminders to borrowers who have missed repayments. These bots interact with customers firmly but politely, nudging them to pay, without crossing lines sometimes breached by human agents. AI systems work around the clock, reaching more people much faster than humans. Where a traditional recovery agent managed about 250 cases/month, an AI agent can handle up to 5,000, at 40–60% lower costs. How Does AI Boost Recovery? Predictive Analytics: AI spots at-risk borrowers by analyzing payment, credit, and even b...

Housing sales in India’s top cities have dipped once again, marking the tenth straight quarterly decline . Analysts forecast a 4% year-on-year drop in sales for July–September 2025, driven by a complex mix of affordability issues, uneven regional demand, and broader economic pressures. The Numbers: Where Is the Impact Felt? Total Sales: Housing sales in the top 9 Indian cities fell to just above 1 lakh units in Q3 2025—a 4% YoY fall. Regional Disparity: The sharpest drops are seen in Maharashtra markets: Pune: 16% drop Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane: 6%–28% drops Bright Spots: In contrast, cities like Bengaluru (+21%), Chennai (+16%), and Kolkata (+25%) saw sales rise, suggesting a more uneven but not universally negative scenario. Sequential Trends: Delhi-NCR saw the steepest quarterly fall (24%), while Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Mumbai showed modest gains. What’s Fueling the Dip? Affordability Challenges: The average property price across top cities jum...

Today, President Trump signed a sweeping executive order imposing a $100,000 annual fee for each new H-1B visa application. This move could significantly alter the landscape of skilled immigration, the Indian IT sector, and global talent flow. Here's an in-depth look at the order, its context, and its far-reaching consequences. What Does the Executive Order Say? Effective September 21, 2025 , U.S. employers must pay $100,000 for every H-1B visa petition. The rule covers new entries and will last for at least 12 months unless extended. H-1B petitions not accompanied by this fee will be denied, locking out thousands of foreign workers unless companies are willing (and able) to pay the surcharge. U.S. agencies are ordered to close loopholes, such as arrivals on business (B-1/B-2) visas with plans to transition to H-1B jobs, making side-stepping the rule nearly impossible. Impact on the Indian IT Industry Short-Term Pain Immediate Cost Spike: Indian IT giants (TCS, In...

Micro-dramas, emotion-packed, snackable episodes under five minutes, are exploding in popularity across Asia and beginning to reshape media consumption in India and beyond. Micro-dramas are driving massive growth worldwide, but it's not just platforms or formats; it's the faces and creative teams behind them who are fueling this surge. What Are Micro-Dramas? These vertical, short-format shows feature quick, serialised storytelling with cliffhangers and recurring characters, all designed for mobile-first viewers who crave immersive but brief entertainment on the go. Typical episodes last between 90 seconds and five minutes, making them perfect for commutes or coffee breaks. Growth and Market Impact In China, micro-drama revenues are set to surpass $9.4 billion in 2025, overtaking the domestic box office, with more than 830 million regular viewers. Around 60% make in-app transactions, driving revenue through subscriptions, micro-payments, and advertising. India’s ...